V-Lab
Jordan Telecommunications Co PSC Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
17.69%
decreased by 0.95%
1 Week
19.01%
increased by 0.37%
1 Month
21.68%
increased by 3.04%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 24, 2003 to Jul 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.1275 | 4.55*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2834 | 7.69*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6211 | 14.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.4461 | 4.14*** |
| γ2 | -0.6009 | -3.68*** |
| γ3 | 0.4098 | 2.88*** |
| γ4 | -0.4506 | -3.17*** |
| γ5 | 0.2461 | 1.80* |
| γ6 | -0.0593 | -0.33 |
| γ7 | -0.0987 | -0.44 |
| γ8 | 0.4101 | 1.64 |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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