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V-Lab

AIFU Inc MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

86.37%

decreased by 1.46%

1 Week

98.67%

increased by 10.84%

1 Month

107.67%

increased by 19.84%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 09:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of AIFU Inc MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 31, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2495
24.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4793
30.42***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0078
0.52
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0353
1.37
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0260
3.73***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9734
123.23***

Persistence:

0.733

Half-life:

2 days