V-Lab
Caswell Inc GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
46.62%
decreased by 3.03%
1 Week
45.32%
decreased by 4.33%
1 Month
42.33%
decreased by 7.32%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 25, 2013 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5882 | 15.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1308 | 12.94*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7560 | 73.06*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0295 | 1.53 |
Persistence:
0.902
Half-life:
7 days
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