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V-Lab

Caswell Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

77.01%

decreased by 5.55%

1 Week

75.18%

decreased by 7.38%

1 Month

69.28%

decreased by 13.28%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Caswell Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 25, 2013 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.75 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

9.7513
3.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1292
22.78***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9582
71.65***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.7500
21.68***

Persistence:

0.958

Half-life:

16 days