V-Lab
Caswell Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
77.01%
decreased by 5.55%
1 Week
75.18%
decreased by 7.38%
1 Month
69.28%
decreased by 13.28%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 25, 2013 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.75 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 9.7513 | 3.29*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1292 | 22.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9582 | 71.65*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.7500 | 21.68*** |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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