V-Lab
Asaka Industrial Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
26.96%
decreased by 0.92%
1 Week
27.25%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Month
28.00%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 30, 1993 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 11 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8411 | 4.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1056 | 5.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8316 | 31.25*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | 0.2190 | 2.39** |
| γ2 | -0.5918 | -4.14*** |
| γ3 | 0.7067 | 7.19*** |
| γ4 | -0.5312 | -6.31*** |
| γ5 | 0.3307 | 3.41*** |
| γ6 | -0.2996 | -2.78*** |
| γ7 | 0.2530 | 3.22*** |
| γ8 | -0.0212 | -0.24 |
| γ9 | -0.1139 | -1.48 |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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