V-Lab
Pusan Cast Iron Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 5th, 2025
1 Day
0.00%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
0.00%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
0.00%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 07:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jun 4, 2025Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 15.8565 | |
| αARCH | 0.4479 | |
| βGARCH | 0.4491 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 18.7879 | |
| γ2 | 2.6339 | |
| γ3 | -29.4316 | |
| γ4 | -2.8249 | |
| γ5 | 1.4964 | |
| γ6 | 20.0210 | |
| γ7 | 3.3336 | |
| γ8 | -8.0407 | |
| γ9 | -44.4933 | |
| γ10 | 60.7192 |
0.897
Persistence6d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.8565 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4479 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4491 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 18.7879 | |
| γ2 | 2.6339 | |
| γ3 | -29.4316 | |
| γ4 | -2.8249 | |
| γ5 | 1.4964 | |
| γ6 | 20.0210 | |
| γ7 | 3.3336 | |
| γ8 | -8.0407 | |
| γ9 | -44.4933 | |
| γ10 | 60.7192 |
Persistence:
0.897
Half-life:
6 days
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