V-Lab
Pusan Cast Iron Co Ltd GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 5th, 2025
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Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 1, 2026 at 07:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jun 4, 2025Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.92 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.2234 | 7.43*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9990 | 254.20*** |
| νDF | 7.9173 | 1.57 |
0.999
Persistence693d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2234 | 7.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 254.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9173 | 1.57 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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