V-Lab
United States Dollar Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
5.41%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
5.44%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
5.58%
increased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:49 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 118 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~118 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0015 | 4.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.0405 | 12.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9536 | 263.00*** |
0.994
Persistence118d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0015 | 4.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0405 | 12.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9536 | 263.00*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
118 days
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