S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
16.01%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
16.11%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Month
16.49%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0256 | 22.70*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0618 | 44.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9199 | 561.92*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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