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V-Lab

S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026

1 Day

16.01%

decreased by 0.36%

1 Week

16.11%

decreased by 0.26%

1 Month

16.49%

increased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 16, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0256
22.70***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0618
44.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9199
561.92***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

38 days