S&P GSCI Biofuel Spot Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
15.79%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
15.90%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
16.32%
increased by 0.23%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 16, 1995 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 45 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 45 days.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0070 | 18.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1269 | 43.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9846 | 1,236.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0031 | 1.23 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
45 days
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