Optimal Blue 30-Year Fixed Rate Conforming Mortgage Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
10.47%
increased by 0.34%
1 Week
10.55%
increased by 0.42%
1 Month
10.84%
increased by 0.71%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 02:33 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 2017 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 54-day half-lifev = 6.31 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 0.7096 | 1.36 |
| αscore | 0.0596 | 5.67*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9873 | 115.11*** |
| νDF | 6.3107 | 1.09 |
0.987
Persistence54d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 0.7096 | 1.36 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0596 | 5.67*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9873 | 115.11*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.3107 | 1.09 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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