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Optimal Blue 30-Year Fixed Rate Conforming Mortgage Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

10.47%

increased by 0.34%

1 Week

10.55%

increased by 0.42%

1 Month

10.84%

increased by 0.71%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 02:33 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Optimal Blue 30-Year Fixed Rate Conforming Mortgage Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 2017 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 54-day half-lifev = 6.31 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run0.7096
1.36
αscore0.0596
5.67***
βpersistence0.9873
115.11***
νDF6.3107
1.09

0.987

Persistence

54d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

0.7096
1.36
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0596
5.67***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9873
115.11***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.3107
1.09

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

54 days