V-Lab
OMX Copenhagen 20 Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
21.43%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Week
22.43%
increased by 0.44%
1 Month
25.02%
increased by 3.03%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 05:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7677 | 3.71*** |
| αARCH | 0.1016 | 8.88*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8417 | 50.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0404 | -1.05 |
| γ2 | 0.0940 | 1.72* |
| γ3 | -0.1111 | -3.71*** |
| γ4 | 0.1069 | 4.62*** |
| γ5 | -0.0910 | -4.29*** |
| γ6 | 0.0636 | 2.64*** |
| γ7 | -0.0087 | -0.30 |
| γ8 | -0.0301 | -0.80 |
0.943
Persistence12d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7677 | 3.71*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1016 | 8.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8417 | 50.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0404 | -1.05 |
| γ2 | 0.0940 | 1.72* |
| γ3 | -0.1111 | -3.71*** |
| γ4 | 0.1069 | 4.62*** |
| γ5 | -0.0910 | -4.29*** |
| γ6 | 0.0636 | 2.64*** |
| γ7 | -0.0087 | -0.30 |
| γ8 | -0.0301 | -0.80 |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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