V-Lab
6M US Treasury CMT 6 Month Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
13.47%
decreased by 0.80%
1 Week
13.70%
decreased by 0.57%
1 Month
14.59%
increased by 0.32%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 6795 trading days (~27.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4432 | 2.33** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1340 | 10.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8659 | 64.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.1927 | -2.69*** |
| γ2 | 0.2823 | 2.63*** |
| γ3 | -0.1648 | -2.49** |
| γ4 | 0.2503 | 4.32*** |
| γ5 | -0.2929 | -2.76*** |
| γ6 | -0.0049 | -0.03 |
| γ7 | 0.2493 | 2.14** |
| γ8 | -0.1387 | -2.40** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
6795 days
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