6M US Treasury CMT 6 Month Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility Prediction for Friday, February 13th, 2026:8.58% (+0.25%)
Parameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.9923 | 1.73 | |
| 0.1401 | 12.11 | |
| 0.8597 | 74.16 | |
| -0.2176 | -1.34 | |
| 0.2028 | 0.88 | |
| 0.2008 | 1.47 | |
| -0.4584 | -3.46 | |
| 0.6333 | 5.55 | |
| -0.5897 | -3.40 | |
| 0.2155 | 1.00 | |
| -0.1458 | -0.84 | |
| 0.4226 | 2.66 | |
| -0.3380 | -2.92 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 1, 1990 to Feb 6, 2026
Jan 1, 1990 to Feb 6, 2026
News Impact Curve
Volatility Forecasts
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