6M US Treasury CMT 6 Month Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 18th, 2026
1 Day
16.43%
increased by 9.72%
1 Week
16.59%
increased by 9.88%
1 Month
17.21%
increased by 10.50%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, June 18, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.4313 | 2.31 | |
| 0.1350 | 10.54 | |
| 0.8649 | 67.47 | |
| -0.1916 | -2.68 | |
| 0.2809 | 2.62 | |
| -0.1656 | -2.50 | |
| 0.2547 | 4.28 | |
| -0.2983 | -2.71 | |
| 0.0004 | 0.00 | |
| 0.2368 | 2.04 | |
| -0.1227 | -2.18 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
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