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V-Lab

6M US Treasury CMT 6 Month Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

13.47%

decreased by 0.80%

1 Week

13.70%

decreased by 0.57%

1 Month

14.59%

increased by 0.32%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:01 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of 6M US Treasury CMT 6 Month S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 6795 trading days (~27.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4432
2.33**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1340
10.02***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8659
64.63***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.1927
-2.69***
γ20.2823
2.63***
γ3-0.1648
-2.49**
γ40.2503
4.32***
γ5-0.2929
-2.76***
γ6-0.0049
-0.03
γ70.2493
2.14**
γ8-0.1387
-2.40**

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

6795 days