V-Lab
10Y US Treasury 10 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
16.95%
increased by 0.31%
1 Week
17.05%
increased by 0.41%
1 Month
17.47%
increased by 0.83%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 03:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 795 trading days (~3.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~795 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0018 | 4.44*** |
| αARCH | 0.0446 | 9.53*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9545 | 198.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0005 | -1.70* |
0.999
Persistence795d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0018 | 4.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0446 | 9.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9545 | 198.28*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0005 | -1.70* |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
795 days
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