V-Lab
10Y US Treasury 10 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
16.66%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
16.77%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
17.21%
increased by 0.27%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 03:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 799 trading days (~3.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0003 | 4.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0448 | 9.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9543 | 197.63*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -1.73* |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
799 days
Other 10Y US Treasury 10 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Government Bonds