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V-Lab

3Y US Treasury 3 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

20.67%

increased by 0.69%

1 Week

20.87%

increased by 0.89%

1 Month

21.62%

increased by 1.64%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 03:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 3Y US Treasury 3 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1904 trading days (~7.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1904 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1710
3.22***
αARCH0.0569
9.83***
βGARCH0.9427
161.65***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0007
-1.78*

1.000

Persistence

1904d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1710
3.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0569
9.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9427
161.65***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0007
-1.78*

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1904 days