V-Lab
3Y US Treasury 3 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
19.67%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Week
19.87%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Month
20.68%
increased by 0.55%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 03:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1930 trading days (~7.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1715 | 3.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0570 | 9.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9426 | 161.19*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0007 | -1.79* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1930 days
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