3Y US Treasury 3 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
21.09%
increased by 0.36%
1 Week
21.27%
increased by 0.54%
1 Month
22.01%
increased by 1.28%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1909 trading days (~7.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1909 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1691 | 3.22*** |
| αARCH | 0.0566 | 9.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9430 | 162.85*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0007 | -1.80* |
1.000
Persistence1909d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1691 | 3.22*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0566 | 9.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9430 | 162.85*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0007 | -1.80* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1909 days
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