V-Lab
3Y US Treasury 3 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
20.07%
1 Week
20.11%
1 Month
20.26%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 03:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 322 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.0387 | 2.39** |
| αARCH | 0.0528 | 17.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9978 | 1,048.16*** |
| νDF | 6.1183 | 6.43*** |
0.998
Persistence322d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.0387 | 2.39** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0528 | 17.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9978 | 1,048.16*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1183 | 6.43*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
322 days
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