V-Lab
3Y US Treasury 3 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
19.39%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
19.43%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Month
19.60%
decreased by 0.54%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 03:07 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 322 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.0386 | 9.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0529 | 70.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9979 | 4,192.66*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0990 | 25.96*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
322 days
Other 3Y US Treasury 3 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Government Bonds