V-Lab
1Y US Treasury CMT 1 Year GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
18.69%
decreased by 1.02%
1 Week
18.76%
decreased by 0.95%
1 Month
19.03%
decreased by 0.68%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 04:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 322 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.67 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.7947 | 10.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0684 | 85.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9978 | 5,279.62*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.6705 | 53.28*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
322 days
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