V-Lab
1Y US Treasury CMT 1 Year Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
18.81%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
19.07%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Month
20.10%
increased by 0.54%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1786 trading days (~7.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2555 | 2.30** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0922 | 9.16*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9074 | 89.74*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0635 | -1.74* |
| γ2 | 0.0607 | 1.09 |
| γ3 | 0.1217 | 3.15*** |
| γ4 | -0.2695 | -7.63*** |
| γ5 | 0.2102 | 6.51*** |
| γ6 | -0.0613 | -2.42** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1786 days
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