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V-Lab

1Y US Treasury CMT 1 Year Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

18.81%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Week

19.07%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Month

20.10%

increased by 0.54%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:01 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of 1Y US Treasury CMT 1 Year S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1786 trading days (~7.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2555
2.30**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0922
9.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9074
89.74***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.0635
-1.74*
γ20.0607
1.09
γ30.1217
3.15***
γ4-0.2695
-7.63***
γ50.2102
6.51***
γ6-0.0613
-2.42**

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1786 days