3M US Treasury CMT 3 Month Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 18th, 2026
1 Day
8.33%
increased by 3.68%
1 Week
8.52%
increased by 3.87%
1 Month
9.24%
increased by 4.59%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, June 18, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.2804 | 0.52 | |
| 0.1801 | 0.11 | |
| 0.8199 | 0.48 | |
| -0.2891 | -0.48 | |
| 0.3801 | 0.45 | |
| -0.0429 | -0.14 | |
| -0.2482 | -2.55 | |
| 0.5827 | 5.58 | |
| -0.6519 | -3.20 | |
| 0.0688 | 0.59 | |
| 0.4683 | 1.70 | |
| -0.3109 | -1.03 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
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