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V-Lab

3M US Treasury CMT 3 Month Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

12.45%

decreased by 1.07%

1 Week

12.60%

decreased by 0.92%

1 Month

13.20%

decreased by 0.32%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of 3M US Treasury CMT 3 Month S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 23901 trading days (~94.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0844
2.19**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1793
0.37
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8206
1.68*
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.2820
-1.85*
γ20.3730
1.73*
γ3-0.0448
-0.45
γ4-0.2457
-3.20***
γ50.5857
6.82***
γ6-0.6628
-7.13***
γ70.0790
0.81
γ80.4759
3.30***
γ9-0.3297
-2.68***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

23901 days