V-Lab
3M US Treasury CMT 3 Month Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
12.45%
decreased by 1.07%
1 Week
12.60%
decreased by 0.92%
1 Month
13.20%
decreased by 0.32%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 23901 trading days (~94.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0844 | 2.19** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1793 | 0.37 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8206 | 1.68* |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.2820 | -1.85* |
| γ2 | 0.3730 | 1.73* |
| γ3 | -0.0448 | -0.45 |
| γ4 | -0.2457 | -3.20*** |
| γ5 | 0.5857 | 6.82*** |
| γ6 | -0.6628 | -7.13*** |
| γ7 | 0.0790 | 0.81 |
| γ8 | 0.4759 | 3.30*** |
| γ9 | -0.3297 | -2.68*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
23901 days
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