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V-Lab

3M US Treasury CMT 3 Month MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

9.76%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Week

10.46%

decreased by 0.01%

1 Month

12.84%

increased by 2.37%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 04:00 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 3M US Treasury CMT 3 Month MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0587
17.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7492
150.72***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2502
32.47***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0512
8.62***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.5423
17.44***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.4577
13.68***

Persistence:

0.933

Half-life:

10 days