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V-Lab

3M US Treasury CMT 3 Month MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

9.76%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

10.95%

increased by 1.17%

1 Month

13.99%

increased by 4.21%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 3M US Treasury CMT 3 Month MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow46
αARCH0.0602
4.12***
βGARCH0.7475
42.24***
γleverage0.2490
5.95***
λ₁tau intercept0.0524
2.38**
λ₂forecast adj.0.5455
14.66***
λ₃tau persistence0.4545
14.42***

0.932

Persistence

10d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0602
4.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7475
42.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2490
5.95***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0524
2.38**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.5455
14.66***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.4545
14.42***

Persistence:

0.932

Half-life:

10 days