V-Lab
3M US Treasury CMT 3 Month MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
9.76%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
10.46%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
12.84%
increased by 2.37%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 04:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0587 | 17.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7492 | 150.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2502 | 32.47*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0512 | 8.62*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.5423 | 17.44*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4577 | 13.68*** |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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