ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index

ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 3 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index

ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market 6 Month Option Volatility Estimate Index

CBOE Volatility Index

CBOE NASDAQ-100 Volatility Index

CBOE DJIA Volatility Index

CBOE Russell 2000 Volatility Index

CBOE S&P 500 9-Day Volatility Index

CBOE 3-Month Volatility Index

CBOE 1-Day Volatility Index

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How volatility evolves over time

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{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	21
αARCH	0.0594	2.39**
βGARCH	0.6379	9.83***
γleverage	0.4371	2.90***
λ₁tau intercept	0.0088	1.65*
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0722	5.49***
λ₃tau persistence	0.9278	71.02***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	21
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0594	2.39**
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.6379	9.83***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.4371	2.90***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.0088	1.65*
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0722	5.49***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.9278	71.02***

V-Lab

1M US Treasury CMT 1 Month MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other 1M US Treasury CMT 1 Month Analyses