V-Lab
1M US Treasury CMT 1 Month MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
8.35%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
10.35%
increased by 1.98%
1 Month
17.52%
increased by 9.15%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 2001 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0596 | 2.38** |
| βGARCH | 0.6377 | 9.84*** |
| γleverage | 0.4386 | 2.91*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0089 | 1.64 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0722 | 5.46*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9278 | 70.61*** |
0.917
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0596 | 2.38** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6377 | 9.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.4386 | 2.91*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0089 | 1.64 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0722 | 5.46*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9278 | 70.61*** |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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