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V-Lab

1M US Treasury CMT 1 Month MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

8.35%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

10.35%

increased by 1.98%

1 Month

17.52%

increased by 9.15%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 1M US Treasury CMT 1 Month MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 31, 2001 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0596
2.38**
βGARCH0.6377
9.84***
γleverage0.4386
2.91***
λ₁tau intercept0.0089
1.64
λ₂forecast adj.0.0722
5.46***
λ₃tau persistence0.9278
70.61***

0.917

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0596
2.38**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6377
9.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.4386
2.91***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0089
1.64
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0722
5.46***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9278
70.61***

Persistence:

0.917

Half-life:

8 days