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6M US Treasury CMT 6 Month MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

15.69%

decreased by 1.28%

1 Week

15.80%

decreased by 1.17%

1 Month

16.75%

decreased by 0.22%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 05:00 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 6M US Treasury CMT 6 Month MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0526
3.83***
βGARCH0.7146
31.23***
γleverage0.2240
6.87***
λ₁tau intercept0.0083
2.49**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0783
9.22***
λ₃tau persistence0.9217
105.82***

0.879

Persistence

5d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0526
3.83***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7146
31.23***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2240
6.87***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0083
2.49**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0783
9.22***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9217
105.82***

Persistence:

0.879

Half-life:

5 days