6M US Treasury CMT 6 Month GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 18th, 2026
1 Day
12.38%
increased by 5.27%
1 Week
12.60%
increased by 5.49%
1 Month
13.44%
increased by 6.33%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, June 18, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0108 | 13.80 | |
| 0.0622 | 25.03 | |
| 0.8991 | 384.71 | |
| 0.0775 | 12.89 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
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