7Y US Treasury CMT 7 Year GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 18th, 2026
1 Day
18.85%
increased by 0.26%
1 Week
18.89%
increased by 0.30%
1 Month
19.06%
increased by 0.47%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, June 18, 2026 at 03:02 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0032 | 4.39 | |
| 0.0200 | 17.31 | |
| 0.9626 | 1,016.45 | |
| 0.0349 | 14.28 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
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