5Y US Treasury CMT 5 Year GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 18th, 2026
1 Day
20.07%
increased by 0.49%
1 Week
20.12%
increased by 0.54%
1 Month
20.31%
increased by 0.73%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, June 18, 2026 at 03:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0039 | 4.17 | |
| 0.0194 | 16.09 | |
| 0.9615 | 1,002.61 | |
| 0.0382 | 15.20 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
Other 5Y US Treasury CMT 5 Year Analyses
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Government Bonds