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V-Lab

2Y US Treasury 2 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

16.18%

increased by 0.26%

1 Week

16.28%

increased by 0.36%

1 Month

16.67%

increased by 0.75%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 03:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of 2Y US Treasury 2 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 170% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 170% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0063
1.58
αARCH0.0264
4.48***
βGARCH0.9512
176.68***
γleverage0.0448
3.49***

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0063
1.58
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0264
4.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9512
176.68***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0448
3.49***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days