V-Lab
20Y US Treasury 20 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
11.09%
increased by 0.03%
1 Week
11.14%
increased by 0.08%
1 Month
11.34%
increased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 03:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 933 trading days (~3.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 126% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0026 | 5.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0229 | 20.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9619 | 932.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0289 | 9.75*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
933 days
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