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V-Lab

20Y US Treasury 20 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

11.09%

increased by 0.03%

1 Week

11.14%

increased by 0.08%

1 Month

11.34%

increased by 0.28%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 03:08 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of 20Y US Treasury 20 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 933 trading days (~3.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 126% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0026
5.35***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0229
20.58***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9619
932.94***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0289
9.75***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

933 days