V-Lab
20Y US Treasury 20 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
10.97%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
11.02%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
11.21%
increased by 0.24%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 03:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 274 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3183 | 8.39*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0401 | 50.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9975 | 2,577.45*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.1800 | 5.83*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
274 days
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