V-Lab
20Y US Treasury 20 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
13.28%
1 Week
13.31%
1 Month
13.43%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 03:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 272 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3264 | 2.09** |
| αARCH | 0.0399 | 12.54*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9975 | 640.62*** |
| νDF | 10.1496 | 1.45 |
0.997
Persistence272d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3264 | 2.09** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0399 | 12.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9975 | 640.62*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.1496 | 1.45 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
272 days
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