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20Y US Treasury 20 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

15.53%

decreased by 0.41%

1 Week

15.55%

decreased by 0.39%

1 Month

15.61%

decreased by 0.33%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 20Y US Treasury 20 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 269 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~269 daysv = 10.23 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.3377
2.09**
αscore0.0400
12.54***
βpersistence0.9974
637.74***
νDF10.2311
1.43

0.997

Persistence

269d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.3377
2.09**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0400
12.54***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9974
637.74***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.2311
1.43

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

269 days