20Y US Treasury 20 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
15.53%
1 Week
15.55%
1 Month
15.61%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 269 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.3377 | 2.09** |
| αscore | 0.0400 | 12.54*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9974 | 637.74*** |
| νDF | 10.2311 | 1.43 |
0.997
Persistence269d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.3377 | 2.09** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0400 | 12.54*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9974 | 637.74*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.2311 | 1.43 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
269 days
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