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V-Lab

20Y US Treasury 20 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

13.28%

increased by 0.25%

1 Week

13.31%

increased by 0.28%

1 Month

13.43%

increased by 0.40%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 03:06 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of 20Y US Treasury 20 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 272 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~272 daysv = 10.15 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3264
2.09**
αARCH0.0399
12.54***
βGARCH0.9975
640.62***
νDF10.1496
1.45

0.997

Persistence

272d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3264
2.09**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0399
12.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9975
640.62***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.1496
1.45

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

272 days