3M US Treasury CMT 3 Month GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
10.68%
1 Week
10.92%
1 Month
11.80%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 05:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 340 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 7.8606 | 2.43** |
| αscore | 0.1688 | 24.62*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9980 | 1,253.72*** |
| νDF | 5.9976 | 9.07*** |
0.998
Persistence340d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 7.8606 | 2.43** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1688 | 24.62*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9980 | 1,253.72*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.9976 | 9.07*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
340 days
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