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3M US Treasury CMT 3 Month GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

10.68%

decreased by 0.62%

1 Week

10.92%

decreased by 0.38%

1 Month

11.80%

increased by 0.50%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 05:00 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 3M US Treasury CMT 3 Month GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 340 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.00 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~340 daysv = 6.00 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run7.8606
2.43**
αscore0.1688
24.62***
βpersistence0.9980
1,253.72***
νDF5.9976
9.07***

0.998

Persistence

340d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

7.8606
2.43**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1688
24.62***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9980
1,253.72***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.9976
9.07***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

340 days