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V-Lab

30Y US Treasury 30 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

15.33%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Week

15.38%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Month

15.54%

increased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 03:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of 30Y US Treasury 30 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 165 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~165 daysv = 7.65 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.5574
1.72*
αARCH0.0479
13.38***
βGARCH0.9958
369.92***
νDF7.6459
2.04**

0.996

Persistence

165d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5574
1.72*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0479
13.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9958
369.92***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.6459
2.04**

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

165 days