V-Lab
30Y US Treasury 30 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
15.33%
1 Week
15.38%
1 Month
15.54%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 03:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 165 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.65 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.5574 | 1.72* |
| αARCH | 0.0479 | 13.38*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9958 | 369.92*** |
| νDF | 7.6459 | 2.04** |
0.996
Persistence165d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5574 | 1.72* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0479 | 13.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9958 | 369.92*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.6459 | 2.04** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
165 days
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