V-Lab
30Y US Treasury 30 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
12.93%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
13.21%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
14.21%
increased by 1.16%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 03:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 85 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6674 | 7.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0579 | 9.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9340 | 140.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -3.31*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
85 days
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