V-Lab
7Y US Treasury CMT 7 Year Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
17.96%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
18.11%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Month
18.69%
increased by 0.51%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1098 trading days (~4.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0621 | 4.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0483 | 10.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9511 | 204.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0007 | -1.89* |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1098 days
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