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V-Lab

7Y US Treasury CMT 7 Year Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

17.96%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Week

18.11%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Month

18.69%

increased by 0.51%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 7Y US Treasury CMT 7 Year S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1098 trading days (~4.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0621
4.23***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0483
10.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9511
204.22***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0007
-1.89*

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

1098 days