1Y US Treasury 1 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
16.31%
1 Week
16.61%
1 Month
17.74%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 15068 trading days (~59.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1622 | 2.76*** |
| αARCH | 0.0853 | 2.40** |
| βGARCH | 0.9147 | 25.70*** |
| γ1 | -0.2786 | -1.73* |
| γ2 | 0.3559 | 1.59 |
| γ3 | -0.1061 | -0.96 |
| γ4 | 0.1755 | 2.40** |
| γ5 | -0.3254 | -3.54*** |
| γ6 | 0.1654 | 1.20 |
| γ7 | 0.1134 | 0.86 |
| γ8 | -0.1329 | -1.83* |
1.000
Persistence15068d
Half-lifeZero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1622 | 2.76*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0853 | 2.40** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9147 | 25.70*** |
| γ1 | -0.2786 | -1.73* |
| γ2 | 0.3559 | 1.59 |
| γ3 | -0.1061 | -0.96 |
| γ4 | 0.1755 | 2.40** |
| γ5 | -0.3254 | -3.54*** |
| γ6 | 0.1654 | 1.20 |
| γ7 | 0.1134 | 0.86 |
| γ8 | -0.1329 | -1.83* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
15068 days
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