1Y US Treasury 1 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, June 15th, 2026
1 Day
15.44%
decreased by 0.40%
1 Week
15.74%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
16.88%
increased by 1.04%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, June 17, 2026 at 03:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1665 | 2.74 | |
| 0.0868 | 2.00 | |
| 0.9132 | 21.05 | |
| -0.2861 | -1.76 | |
| 0.3633 | 1.61 | |
| -0.1085 | -0.99 | |
| 0.1845 | 2.47 | |
| -0.3233 | -3.26 | |
| 0.1337 | 0.97 | |
| 0.1476 | 1.21 | |
| -0.1436 | -2.22 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
Jan 2, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
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