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1Y US Treasury 1 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

16.31%

increased by 0.22%

1 Week

16.61%

increased by 0.52%

1 Month

17.74%

increased by 1.65%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 1Y US Treasury 1 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 15068 trading days (~59.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~15068 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1622
2.76***
αARCH0.0853
2.40**
βGARCH0.9147
25.70***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.2786
-1.73*
γ20.3559
1.59
γ3-0.1061
-0.96
γ40.1755
2.40**
γ5-0.3254
-3.54***
γ60.1654
1.20
γ70.1134
0.86
γ8-0.1329
-1.83*

1.000

Persistence

15068d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1622
2.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0853
2.40**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9147
25.70***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-0.2786
-1.73*
γ20.3559
1.59
γ3-0.1061
-0.96
γ40.1755
2.40**
γ5-0.3254
-3.54***
γ60.1654
1.20
γ70.1134
0.86
γ8-0.1329
-1.83*

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

15068 days