V-Lab
10Y US Treasury CMT 10 Year Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
15.73%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
15.87%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
16.41%
increased by 0.44%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 617 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9818 | 3.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0477 | 9.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9512 | 192.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0005 | -1.69* |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
617 days
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