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V-Lab

10Y US Treasury CMT 10 Year Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

15.73%

decreased by 0.24%

1 Week

15.87%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

16.41%

increased by 0.44%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 10Y US Treasury CMT 10 Year S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 617 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9818
3.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0477
9.91***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9512
192.93***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0005
-1.69*

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

617 days