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{name} Model Equation

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Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	126
αARCH	0.0200	4.62***
βGARCH	0.9614	260.47***
γleverage	0.0364	5.28***
λ₁tau intercept	0.0037	0.40
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0000	0.00
λ₃tau persistence	0.9998	168.23***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	126
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0200	4.62***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.9614	260.47***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.0364	5.28***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.0037	0.40
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0000	0.00
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.9998	168.23***

V-Lab

10Y US Treasury CMT 10 Year MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other 10Y US Treasury CMT 10 Year Analyses