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V-Lab

3Y US Treasury CMT 3 Year MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

18.26%

increased by 0.04%

1 Week

18.33%

increased by 0.11%

1 Month

18.61%

increased by 0.39%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 04:00 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of 3Y US Treasury CMT 3 Year MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 18003 trading days (~71.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 273% more than positive returns

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

121
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0178
14.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9578
1,076.21***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0486
23.78***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
3.23***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9252
37.12***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

18003 days