3Y US Treasury CMT 3 Year MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 18th, 2026
1 Day
20.82%
increased by 1.10%
1 Week
20.88%
increased by 1.16%
1 Month
21.12%
increased by 1.40%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, June 18, 2026 at 03:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 121 | ||
| 0.0182 | 14.85 | |
| 0.9576 | 1,165.00 | |
| 0.0483 | 23.82 | |
| 10.0000 | 2.91 | |
| 0.0000 | 0.00 | |
| 0.8494 | 16.02 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
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