V-Lab
3Y US Treasury CMT 3 Year MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
18.26%
1 Week
18.33%
1 Month
18.61%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 04:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 18003 trading days (~71.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 273% more than positive returns
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 121 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0178 | 14.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9578 | 1,076.21*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0486 | 23.78*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 3.23*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9252 | 37.12*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
18003 days
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