3Y US Treasury CMT 3 Year GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 18th, 2026
1 Day
20.89%
increased by 1.16%
1 Week
20.95%
increased by 1.22%
1 Month
21.19%
increased by 1.46%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, June 18, 2026 at 03:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0050 | 4.41 | |
| 0.0188 | 14.28 | |
| 0.9581 | 822.41 | |
| 0.0462 | 17.82 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
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