1Y US Treasury CMT 1 Year GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 18th, 2026
1 Day
17.52%
increased by 4.27%
1 Week
17.66%
increased by 4.41%
1 Month
18.22%
increased by 4.97%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, June 18, 2026 at 03:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0098 | 12.97 | |
| 0.0438 | 22.19 | |
| 0.9276 | 487.69 | |
| 0.0572 | 13.25 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
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