2Y US Treasury CMT 2 Year GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 18th, 2026
1 Day
21.55%
increased by 1.31%
1 Week
21.62%
increased by 1.38%
1 Month
21.92%
increased by 1.68%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, June 18, 2026 at 03:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0064 | 5.52 | |
| 0.0216 | 14.05 | |
| 0.9537 | 699.20 | |
| 0.0493 | 17.11 |
Estimation Period:
Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 12, 2026
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