V-Lab
2Y US Treasury CMT 2 Year GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
18.98%
1 Week
19.06%
1 Month
19.39%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 229% more than positive returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0064 | 5.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0215 | 14.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9538 | 701.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0494 | 17.18*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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