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V-Lab

2Y US Treasury CMT 2 Year GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

18.98%

unchanged at 0.00%

1 Week

19.06%

increased by 0.08%

1 Month

19.39%

increased by 0.41%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of 2Y US Treasury CMT 2 Year GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 229% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0064
5.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0215
14.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9538
701.85***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0494
17.18***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days