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V-Lab

2Y US Treasury CMT 2 Year Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

21.68%

decreased by 0.13%

1 Week

21.86%

increased by 0.05%

1 Month

22.57%

increased by 0.76%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 04:01 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 2Y US Treasury CMT 2 Year S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2557 trading days (~10.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~2557 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2247
2.76***
αARCH0.0592
8.08***
βGARCH0.9405
127.71***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-1.36

1.000

Persistence

2557d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2247
2.76***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0592
8.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9405
127.71***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-1.36

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

2557 days