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V-Lab

2Y US Treasury CMT 2 Year Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

20.60%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Week

20.79%

decreased by 0.03%

1 Month

21.55%

increased by 0.73%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of 2Y US Treasury CMT 2 Year S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2557 trading days (~10.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2276
2.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0597
8.08***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9400
126.59***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0006
-1.33

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

2557 days