V-Lab
2Y US Treasury CMT 2 Year Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
20.60%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Week
20.79%
decreased by 0.03%
1 Month
21.55%
increased by 0.73%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2557 trading days (~10.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2276 | 2.75*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0597 | 8.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9400 | 126.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -1.33 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2557 days
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