2Y US Treasury 2 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
19.84%
increased by 0.33%
1 Week
20.03%
increased by 0.52%
1 Month
20.78%
increased by 1.27%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2032 trading days (~8.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~2032 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1838 | 3.08*** |
| αARCH | 0.0607 | 8.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9390 | 135.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0005 | -1.44 |
1.000
Persistence2032d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1838 | 3.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0607 | 8.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9390 | 135.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0005 | -1.44 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2032 days
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