V-Lab
2Y US Treasury 2 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
18.79%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
18.99%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Month
19.79%
increased by 0.55%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 03:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 2044 trading days (~8.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1870 | 3.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0612 | 8.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9385 | 134.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0006 | -1.43 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2044 days
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