V-Lab
5Y US Treasury 5 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
19.83%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Week
19.98%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
20.58%
increased by 0.31%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 03:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1453 trading days (~5.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1067 | 3.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0499 | 10.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9496 | 193.60*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0007 | -1.79* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1453 days
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