5Y US Treasury 5 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
20.87%
increased by 0.21%
1 Week
21.01%
increased by 0.35%
1 Month
21.56%
increased by 0.90%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1438 trading days (~5.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1438 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1049 | 3.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.0496 | 10.32*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9499 | 195.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0007 | -1.80* |
1.000
Persistence1438d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1049 | 3.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0496 | 10.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9499 | 195.21*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0007 | -1.80* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1438 days
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