V-Lab
5Y US Treasury 5 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
20.15%
increased by 0.48%
1 Week
20.30%
increased by 0.63%
1 Month
20.87%
increased by 1.20%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 03:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1429 trading days (~5.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1429 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1068 | 3.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.0499 | 10.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9496 | 193.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0007 | -1.77* |
1.000
Persistence1429d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1068 | 3.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0499 | 10.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9496 | 193.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0007 | -1.77* |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1429 days
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