5Y US Treasury 5 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
18.93%
1 Week
18.96%
1 Month
19.09%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 313 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.27 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.5611 | 2.17** |
| αscore | 0.0477 | 15.49*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9978 | 879.89*** |
| νDF | 7.2691 | 3.74*** |
0.998
Persistence313d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.5611 | 2.17** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0477 | 15.49*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9978 | 879.89*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.2691 | 3.74*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
313 days
Other 5Y US Treasury 5 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Government Bonds