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V-Lab

5Y US Treasury 5 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

20.12%

increased by 0.77%

1 Week

20.15%

increased by 0.80%

1 Month

20.25%

increased by 0.90%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 03:06 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of 5Y US Treasury 5 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 311 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.28 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~311 daysv = 7.28 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.5384
2.22**
αARCH0.0477
15.46***
βGARCH0.9978
886.91***
νDF7.2775
3.76***

0.998

Persistence

311d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5384
2.22**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0477
15.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9978
886.91***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.2775
3.76***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

311 days