V-Lab
5Y US Treasury 5 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
19.43%
decreased by 0.68%
1 Week
19.46%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Month
19.58%
decreased by 0.53%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 03:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 312 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.23 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5408 | 8.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0478 | 61.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9978 | 3,550.81*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.2303 | 15.27*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
312 days
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