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2Y US Treasury CMT 2 Year GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

23.35%

increased by 2.32%

1 Week

23.38%

increased by 2.35%

1 Month

23.49%

increased by 2.46%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of 2Y US Treasury CMT 2 Year GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 317 trading days (~1.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~317 daysv = 5.94 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.3903
2.52**
αARCH0.0541
17.43***
βGARCH0.9978
1,141.67***
νDF5.9425
6.47***

0.998

Persistence

317d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.3903
2.52**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0541
17.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9978
1,141.67***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.9425
6.47***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

317 days