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V-Lab

2Y US Treasury CMT 2 Year GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

19.15%

increased by 0.05%

1 Week

19.23%

increased by 0.13%

1 Month

19.51%

increased by 0.41%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 04:01 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 2Y US Treasury CMT 2 Year GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 272 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~272 daysv = 9.29 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run4.1075
1.94*
αscore0.0712
14.80***
βpersistence0.9975
709.43***
νDF9.2892
2.24**

0.997

Persistence

272d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

4.1075
1.94*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0712
14.80***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9975
709.43***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.2892
2.24**

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

272 days