7Y US Treasury CMT 7 Year GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
18.88%
1 Week
18.91%
1 Month
19.01%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 05:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 291 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 11.55 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.4628 | 2.31** |
| αscore | 0.0501 | 12.77*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9976 | 803.24*** |
| νDF | 11.5496 | 1.40 |
0.998
Persistence291d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.4628 | 2.31** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0501 | 12.77*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9976 | 803.24*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 11.5496 | 1.40 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
291 days
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