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V-Lab

7Y US Treasury CMT 7 Year GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

19.36%

increased by 2.22%

1 Week

19.39%

increased by 2.25%

1 Month

19.48%

increased by 2.34%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of 7Y US Treasury CMT 7 Year GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 298 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~298 daysv = 8.11 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.3048
2.17**
αARCH0.0455
14.25***
βGARCH0.9977
813.77***
νDF8.1051
2.77***

0.998

Persistence

298d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3048
2.17**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0455
14.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9977
813.77***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.1051
2.77***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

298 days