V-Lab
7Y US Treasury CMT 7 Year GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
19.36%
1 Week
19.39%
1 Month
19.48%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 298 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.3048 | 2.17** |
| αARCH | 0.0455 | 14.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9977 | 813.77*** |
| νDF | 8.1051 | 2.77*** |
0.998
Persistence298d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3048 | 2.17** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0455 | 14.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9977 | 813.77*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.1051 | 2.77*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
298 days
Other 7Y US Treasury CMT 7 Year Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Government Bonds