V-Lab
7Y US Treasury CMT 7 Year GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
17.47%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
17.51%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Month
17.65%
decreased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 298 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.07 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3102 | 8.66*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0457 | 57.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9977 | 3,249.76*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.0687 | 11.16*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
298 days
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