V-Lab
1Y US Treasury 1 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
18.55%
1 Week
18.60%
1 Month
18.78%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 03:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 274 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.75 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.7239 | 2.37** |
| αARCH | 0.0656 | 21.21*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9975 | 972.20*** |
| νDF | 4.7493 | 12.64*** |
0.997
Persistence274d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.7239 | 2.37** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0656 | 21.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9975 | 972.20*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.7493 | 12.64*** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
274 days
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