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V-Lab

1Y US Treasury 1 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

18.55%

increased by 0.51%

1 Week

18.60%

increased by 0.56%

1 Month

18.78%

increased by 0.74%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 03:06 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

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graph of 1Y US Treasury 1 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 274 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.75 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~274 daysv = 4.75 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.7239
2.37**
αARCH0.0656
21.21***
βGARCH0.9975
972.20***
νDF4.7493
12.64***

0.997

Persistence

274d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.7239
2.37**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0656
21.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9975
972.20***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.7493
12.64***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

274 days