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1Y US Treasury 1 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

15.22%

increased by 0.71%

1 Week

15.30%

increased by 0.79%

1 Month

15.59%

increased by 1.08%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 1Y US Treasury 1 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 273 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.78 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~273 daysv = 4.78 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.7026
2.36**
αscore0.0657
21.14***
βpersistence0.9975
958.18***
νDF4.7764
12.39***

0.997

Persistence

273d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.7026
2.36**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0657
21.14***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9975
958.18***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.7764
12.39***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

273 days