V-Lab
10Y US Treasury 10 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
15.95%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Week
15.98%
decreased by 0.33%
1 Month
16.11%
decreased by 0.20%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 at 03:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 279 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.10 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7969 | 8.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0422 | 51.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9975 | 2,841.92*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.1004 | 7.97*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
279 days
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