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10Y US Treasury 10 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

16.47%

increased by 0.49%

1 Week

16.49%

increased by 0.51%

1 Month

16.60%

increased by 0.62%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 03:06 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of 10Y US Treasury 10 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 279 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~279 daysv = 9.17 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.7937
2.17**
αARCH0.0421
12.87***
βGARCH0.9975
714.55***
νDF9.1723
1.97**

0.998

Persistence

279d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7937
2.17**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0421
12.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9975
714.55***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

9.1723
1.97**

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

279 days