10Y US Treasury 10 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
17.47%
1 Week
17.49%
1 Month
17.58%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 04:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 279 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.7982 | 2.17** |
| αscore | 0.0420 | 12.88*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9975 | 715.58*** |
| νDF | 9.1536 | 1.98** |
0.998
Persistence279d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.7982 | 2.17** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0420 | 12.88*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9975 | 715.58*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.1536 | 1.98** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
279 days
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