V-Lab
10Y US Treasury 10 Year Zero Coupon Yield Continuously Compounded GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
16.47%
1 Week
16.49%
1 Month
16.60%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 03:06 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 279 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.17 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7937 | 2.17** |
| αARCH | 0.0421 | 12.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9975 | 714.55*** |
| νDF | 9.1723 | 1.97** |
0.998
Persistence279d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7937 | 2.17** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0421 | 12.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9975 | 714.55*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.1723 | 1.97** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
279 days
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