1M US Treasury CMT 1 Month GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026
1 Day
8.57%
1 Week
8.95%
1 Month
10.33%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 04:01 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 31, 2001 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 432 trading days (~1.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 12.6291 | 2.72*** |
| αscore | 0.1929 | 29.99*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9984 | 1,677.98*** |
| νDF | 3.9381 | 33.77*** |
0.998
Persistence432d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 12.6291 | 2.72*** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1929 | 29.99*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9984 | 1,677.98*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.9381 | 33.77*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
432 days
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