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1M US Treasury CMT 1 Month GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 9th, 2026

1 Day

8.57%

decreased by 1.07%

1 Week

8.95%

decreased by 0.69%

1 Month

10.33%

increased by 0.69%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 04:01 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/06/2024

to

11/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of 1M US Treasury CMT 1 Month GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 31, 2001 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 432 trading days (~1.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~432 daysv = 3.94 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run12.6291
2.72***
αscore0.1929
29.99***
βpersistence0.9984
1,677.98***
νDF3.9381
33.77***

0.998

Persistence

432d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

12.6291
2.72***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1929
29.99***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9984
1,677.98***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.9381
33.77***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

432 days