1M US Treasury CMT 1 Month GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, June 18th, 2026
1 Day
6.94%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Week
7.12%
increased by 0.03%
1 Month
7.78%
increased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, June 18, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
| param | t-stat | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0049 | 4.23 | |
| 0.0125 | 2.69 | |
| 0.9290 | 358.41 | |
| 0.1169 | 8.58 |
Estimation Period:
Jul 31, 2001 to Jun 12, 2026
Jul 31, 2001 to Jun 12, 2026
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