V-Lab
20Y US Treasury CMT 20 Year GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
12.10%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Week
12.16%
decreased by 0.05%
1 Month
12.40%
increased by 0.19%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 03:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 931 trading days (~3.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 160% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0034 | 4.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0199 | 18.08*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9634 | 868.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0318 | 9.83*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
931 days
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